NFL Week 16 Predictions

My streak of double digit correct picks continued last week, but barely, with 10 right. And that without help from New England. Ugh. As far as the Packers go, I've said many times they are my nemesis, losing when I pick them to win, winning when I pick them to lose.

I must say that I was impressed with Eli Manning this past week. It's amazing what a quarterback can do when he doesn't have defensive linemen in his face every play. Poor offensive line play was Kurt Warner's undoing, and it carried over to Eli's stint as starting quarterback. However, that line played well against Pittsburgh, and Eli had quite a game. The next decade is starting to look quite exciting with so many young quarterbacks--Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Chad Pennington, Tom Brady, Byron Leftwich, maybe Drew Brees--plus some guys hitting their primes--Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb.

I could comment on the shocking Dolphin upset of the Patriots and the injury to Terrell Owens, but I already have elsewhere, and I don't want to repeat myself. I could comment, but I don't want to repeat myself.

Onto this week.

Packers @ Vikings
The winner of this game will win the NFC North and likely claim the third seed in the playoffs. The Packers are already in the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of this game. Green Bay has been a streaky team this year. Four straight losses followed by six straight wins. They are 1-2 in the last three games, but have not looked good at all in any of them. To be fair, the two losses were against Philadelphia and Jacksonville, both likely playoff teams. The Packer offense did not play as poorly as their stats would indicate against the Jaguars. Jacksonville just out muscled them, especially on that interception in the end zone where Driver saw the touchdown ripped right out of his hands. The Vikings have not looked great either, with two losses in the last three weeks and the lone victory being by one point over Detroit, thanks to a bad snap on the extra point. Were it not for some dropped passes, the Lions would probably have won that game. The two teams are clones of each other in many ways: neither can play defense, both have strong and deep running games, both have excellent receivers and a strong quarterback. Minneapolis has not been friendly to Brett Favre over the years. He has only one a few times there. And Ferguson, one of those top receivers, will obviously be out. With a division title on the line, you have to expect both teams to go all out. But Favre's history in the dome will give the Vikings the win and the division. Prediction: Vikings.

Raiders @ Chiefs
This should be a great shootout game. Both teams are good on offense and inept on defense. The Chiefs, though, are much better at scoring. Prediction: Chiefs.

Broncos @ Titans
Denver is reeling, having lost three of four. Their lone victory in the last month came against Miami, and they barely won that one. The boo-birds have been out in force for Jake Plummer, and he's taken to flipping the bird back to the fans. The Titans have been even worse, enduring a four game losing streak. The Titan offense has done more than enough to win, ranking 8th in the league. Billy Volek has thrown for 17 touchdowns in relief of Steve McNair. But their defense, once the core of the team, has been atrocious. Only two teams--the 29ers and the Raiders--have given up more points. Denver should have the offensive power to outgun Volek. Prediction: Broncos.

Giants @ Bengals
Another matchup of exciting, young quarterbacks. The Bengals have a more developed passing game and defense. Prediction: Bengals.

Bears @ Lions
Despite their record, Detroit is not that bad of a team. They could have beaten the Vikings last week, but made some costly errors. They did a good job stopping the Viking rush and pressuring Culpepper. Their weakness defensively was the secondary. The Bears are built on the running game, so they don't measure up well against the Lion defense. Prediction: Lions.

Chargers @ Colts
This should be the game of the weekend, and it will decide who goes third and who goes fourth in the AFC playoff rankings. Both teams feature explosive, high scoring offenses. The Chargers have the better defense. That suggests a Charger victory. But this is the biggest game many of these Chargers have played in their professional careers, whereas it's just another Sunday for the Colts. That means nerves and jittery players on the visiting sideline. The Colt defense is better than some might think. They have faced their fair share of high octane offenses (their division alone has Houston and Tennessee) and they've won most of those matchups. Prediction: Colts.

Texans @ Jaguars
Jacksonville is looking pretty impressive right now. What impressed me about the game with the Packers was their physical play on defense. (Darius was way too physical on that one play, but I think the league handled it correctly by levying a heavy fine and admonishment, but no suspension.) Leftwich took a beating from the Packer defense, but kept coming back. He's going to be a good one. Houston just can't seem to put it together. Prediction: Jaguars.

Falcons @ Saints
The Saints are on a two game winning streak and are tied with Carolina at 6-8, so they are realistically in contention for a wild card spot. The last time they faced the Falcons, the Saints got to within a field goal. The Falcons have little left to play for, having already secured the second seed in the playoffs. This matchup is ripe for an upset, but it's too early for teams to start taking games off, so one expects the Falcons to play hard and live up to their ranking. Prediction: Falcons.

Ravens @ Steelers
Pittsburgh has only lost one game this season, to Baltimore. While the Steelers are playing like one of the best teams in the league, Baltimore is struggling for a wildcard spot. The Ravens have dropped three of their last four games. While their offense has scored points, it's the defense that is costing the team games. They won't catch a break this week. With the win, the Steelers will clinch the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Prediction: Steelers.

Patriots @ Jets
Well, the Patriots have really fouled things up for themselves. That's a strange thing to write about a team sitting at 12-2 with a solid grip on the second seed in the playoffs. But with the upset loss last week, the Patriots all but lost a shot at top seed. What is shocking is not that they lost, but how they lost. Bad decision making, stupid penalties and plays. Now, one must avoid reading too much into any single game, no matter how out of character that game was. The Patriots are still one of the best teams in the NFL. The fact is, they rarely win in Miami. Last year's victory was definitely the exception to the historical rule. The proof that one game does not define a team is the Jets, who laid an egg against Pittsburgh in their only loss in the last five games. Granted, that was against the top ranked team in the conference rather than the bottom ranked team. But the point is still made. The Jets have fairly solid grip on the fifth seed in the playoffs, but have not done well when faced with the better teams in the AFC. New England will be looking to wipe the smirks off every commentator's face this weekend. They will take out their frustration and embarrassment on the Jets. Prediction: Patriots.

Bills @ 29ers
Yes, the 29ers have been born after another futile Sunday campaign against a team not based in Arizona. Buffalo, on the other hand, has suddenly become a dominant team. They have gone 7-1 since a 1-5 start and are back in the hunt for the playoffs. In those seven wins, their worst scoring production was 22 points, against the Jets. A key component of their resurrection has been running back Willis McGahee, who suffered a knee injury in last week's win over the Bengals. With Travis Henry out as well, the Bills will go with rookie Shaud Williams. This spells trouble for Buffalo. Wait, they are facing the 29ers. Whew. That was a close one. Prediction: Bills.

Panthers @ Bucs
Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, though Carolina is in a better position. After getting a spark from Brian Griese, the Bucs have cooled again, losing three of their last four games. The Panthers lost last week, but barely. They still have to be considered one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC. Even though they lost, they kept control of the 6th seed in the NFC because everybody else lost too. Prediction: Panthers.

Redskins @ Dallas
Washington's offense has come alive the last couple of weeks with Patrick Ramsey at the helm. If they had had him all season, who knows. Maybe they would be contending for a playoff spot. OK, this is the NFC, so they are contending for a wildcard spot. But that's a technicality. Still, with an improved offense and top-notch defense, the 'Skins should have no problem in this one. Prediction: Redskins.

Cardinals @ Seahawks
As bizarre as it sounds, Arizona still has a shot at the division title. They have to win out to get to 7-9 and have Seattle and St. Louis both lose out, but it is a possible scenario. Given that no one seems to want this title, you can't ignore the possibility. Now that McCown is back on the field for Arizona, their offense has come alive, scoring 59 points the last two weeks. The Seahawks, recognizing their position as division leader and being in danger of winning the title, have lost three of four and are doing everything they can to avoid the playoffs. Despite their best efforts, a win this week will secure a playoff spot, and a win coupled with a Ram loss to the Eagles will secure the division. The Cardinals won their last meeting, but are terrible on the road (1-6 so far this year). I would really like to pick Arizona, but their road record makes that unlikely. Prediction: Seahawks.

Browns @ Dolphins
Miami and Cleveland share the worst record in the AFC, 3-11. But Miami has to be feeling very good about itself. Not only did they shock the Patriots last week, they've won two of their last four, and in the two losses, they nearly beat Denver, and played well against Buffalo. The Browns just stink up the place. From week 9, the Browns have only broken 17 points in a game once. (Admittedly, that was in the highest scoring game since the AFL-NFL merger.) They have been outscored 100-22 in the last three games. I think this will be the first time all year I'll go with Miami to win. Prediction: Miami.

Eagles @ Rams
Like Seattle, St. Louis has realized they are in danger of winning the NFC West again and have been doing everything in their power to avoid the title. They've lost four of their last five (even they couldn't avoid the inevitable win over San Francisco) and six of eight. For the Eagles, this is the first test without Terrell Owens. The Eagles will be fine, until the Super Bowl, without Owens. Prediction: Eagles.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 138-86